There is a decided downturn in expectations among United States farmers according to the results of the most recent monthly survey by the Purdue Centre for Commercial Agriculture,
The trade wars triggered by President Donald Trump are responsible for the anxious mood.
The April barometer reading of 125 was 10 points lower than a month earlier and 15 points below the February reading. The barometer is based on a monthly survey of 400 agricultural producers from across the country.
James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, said "negative perceptions about exports spill over into lower expectations for commodity prices, and then that changes producers’ views about farmland prices."
The trade dispute with China has farmers worried about soybean exports, 30 percent of which go to China.
A majority of producers said they expect a sharp decline in the November soybean futures contract price, possibly to below breakeven.
The April survey also showed a decline in the number of producers expecting good times for the livestock sector, with just 45 percent saying they felt optimistic about the future compared to 59 percent a month earlier.
This is the largest one-month drop since data collection began in fall 2015.
"There was already a sharp drop in hog prices that took place from mid- to late- winter, then add to that the impact of China's 25 percent tariff on U.S. pork imports,” Mintert said.
“It adds a layer of doubt regarding the profitability of pork production and appears to be affecting producers’ plans to increase hog production."
The problem for Canadians is that U.S. prices drive the North American market.
Trump has promised subsidies to cover U.S. trade-related price declines, but that’s no help for Canadians.
