Livestock and poultry farmers around the world will face high costs along the full supply chain, swings in consumption, and other areas of uncertainty such as elevated disease pressure and regulatory and market-driven changes next year, said Justin Sherrard, global strategist for animal protein at Rabobank.
As a result, margins will be squeezed as buyers push back on higher production costs. But opportunities still exist, although they will be more restricted, he said.
The overall trend for 2023 is for production growth to slow further, he said.
Slow growth is expected in China across all species groups, and ongoing growth is expected in Brazil and Southeast Asia. Oceania will experience slow growth, while North American and European production will decline.
Poultry is set to maintain its consistent growth pattern, beef production will decline slightly and pork will see a decline.
In Europe production will come under pressure for all species, on disease risks, market and regulatory-driven changes, and reduced exports. Consumption is expected to hold steady, with poultry benefiting while pork and beef will decline slightly.
Plant proteins will have a year of consolidation. The recent stellar growth of plant-based products is on hold, and investors are shifting focus, Sherrard said.
