Donald Trump’s win Tuesday increases threats to Canadian farmers, mainly related to trade, say observers.
Economist Sylvain Charlebois foresees tense trade negotiations when the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement comes up for review next year.
Canada should be pushing for the review to be a rundown of what worked and what didn’t, not a full-scale reworking of the trade deal, said Keith Currie, president of the Canadian Federation of Agriculture.
“We’re pushing for our government to remind the U.S. and Mexico …U.S. in particular, that this is a review, not a renegotiation,” he said.
While the Bloc Quebecois is trying to take supply management off any trade negotiations, it’s likely that Trump will push for increased dairy-industry access to the Canadian market.
He will be seeking to reward Wisconsin voters who gave him some of the votes he needed to win the presidency, and the Wisconsin dairy industry has been steadily pushing against Canada’s dairy-industry trade protections.
Trump has threatened a 10 per cent tariff on all imports and that would hit hard at the Canadian pork and canola sectors.
He is threatening to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and that could spill some of them into Canada.
Quebec has said it will be beefing up its borders with the U.S.
An immigration surge would further aggravate housing shortages and the cost of government services, although somewhat relieve the job vacancies situation in industries such as meat packing.
American farmers would face a severe labour shortage.
Trump has also made vague promises of increased supports for farmers and reduced taxes on small businesses. That would result in stiffer competition for Canadians.
One big unknown is what R.F. Kennedy Jr. will do after
Trump puts him in charge of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
