Al Mussell, senior economist at the George Morris Centre, has
hit the right timing for another of his commentaries about supply management.
This time, in the midst of news media coverage of the role
of supply management in Canada’s entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade
negotiations, Mussell has released a paper saying Canada need not lose supply
management.
He says there are many things the marketing boards can do if
and when market access for imports increases and tariffs decline.
Mussell had similar good timing when the Doha Round of World
Trade Negotiations looked like it would lead to the demise of supply
management.
Then he outlined a proposal for phasing out high-value quota
by replacing it with lower-priced quota to produce milk, eggs, chickens, turkey
and hatching eggs at lower market prices.
As the market for high-priced products declined, the market for lower-priced dairy and poultry production would increase and farmers could choose, by their quota decisions, how to manage the transition.
Mussell’s current commentary underlines the real issues for
Canadian dairy and poultry farmers as giving up a larger share of the Canadian
market to imports and price declines as tariffs are reduced.
The question then becomes whether farmers continue to accept
the disciplines of supply management when the benefits have substantially
declined.
The main threat then could become some provinces defying
national discipline to ramp up their production.
