Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Chicken industry faces uncertain future



 The world chicken and meat industry face an uncertain future, judging by a long report published by Meatingplace Magazine about a speech recently to the Chicken Marketing Summit at Hilton Head, South Carolina.

Richard Kottmeyer, vice president of agriculture and food for investment banker Luxoft, combs through reams of Big Data numbers to spot trends, and he provided 10 “insights”.

1.   The trend toward antibiotic-free is going to “bite back.” To the extent that procuring AB-free poultry complicates the supply chain, adds smaller producers to the mix and adds to the risk of some food safety snafu, Kottmeyer said. “Statistically, it’s almost certain that one of the companies in this room in the next five years will get ‘Chipotled’,” he said, meaning its sales will plummet because of a food-poisoning scare.

2.   China’s new policy of encouraging less meat and egg consumption is “going to give a great deal of credence to the ‘let’s eat less meat’ movement … [and] we are going to see that that is one of the more important trends in lowering protein consumption on a global basis.”

3.   Trends in flavour profiles favour vegetables and will add to the decrease in protein consumption in developed countries.

4.   Animal welfare is going to replace GMOs in the food chain as the hot-button issue among consumers and the industry will need to redefine its marketing messages accordingly. The question of what constitutes “welfare” is an emotional one, Kottmeyer explained, while GMOs (genetically-modified organisms, mainly Roundup-Ready corn and soybean varieties) and the question of their efficacy and risk is one that can be scientifically calculated. “Consumers are more comfortable talking about emotions than data. It’s not an issue of science when you’re talking about how consumers feel about how animals are being cared for.”

5.   The vocabulary in discussions of animal proteins are shifting from buzzwords, such as “organic” and “natural,” to benefits-based “systems languages,” such as “heart healthy,” “protein” and tangible benefit statements. Consumers are “confused over what the words themselves mean. They want to know tangibly what (those qualities) are going to do for them,” Kottmeyer said.

6.   Consolidation will continue in the global protein industry, but “not from the buyers you would expect. … Consumer want niche-ification, but from major players, not small ones.” So look for big companies to continue snapping up smaller ones with niche markets to offer.

7.   Despite a global trend toward eating less meat, U.S. consumers will not be convinced to do so on health grounds primarily. “We simply have too much confirmation bias regarding meat consumption,” Kottmeyer said. “We simply want to believe that protein is good for us.”

8.   Consumers tend to fall into one of three categories: the “healthy aware,” who are convinced they know what’s good and bad about food, and can be “hard to deal with”; the “disoriented” consumer, comprising most middle-class, Middle America consumers; and the “not interested.” The protein industry’s best marketing bet is to move the “disoriented” consumer into the “not interested” category by making them feel comfortable about the animals’ welfare and other social issues related to proteins. “Invite them into the operation. Marketing to them via ‘clean label’ claims simply won’t work over the long term,” Kottmeyer said.

9.   Poultry is not winning in the “chicken-as-protein” category, Kottmeyer warned. Recent consumption increases are more a reaction to historically high beef prices than they are a love affair with chicken dinners. His research has shown that while poultry is seen as more healthful and kid-friendly, “The way I feel about eating beef or pork suggests there’s more protein in it than poultry,” Kottmeyer said. Chicken’s relatively low cost of production per pound, however, favors market growth in developing countries. “Likewise, a trend toward vegetable consumption lifts poultry more than other trends. It combines better with those flavors,” Kottmeyer said. “Don’t see a lot of poultry tied into vegetable consumption, but it should. The combination is one of the clearest indicators in the data.”

10.                Long-term changes around population shifts and changes in culture and preferences related to food will have a much greater effect on future protein consumption than any trend-conscious, “buzzword” marketing that processors may be investing in now. Kottmeyer argued that data suggesting high consumer interest in “sustainability” is essentially a pre-determined response based on the way the questions are asked. Consumers come down on the side of “greater transparency” because they want to give the “right” answer, not because they really want to have to sift through additional information.