Rabobank predicts supermarkets will again start featuring pork, that production will decline and that prices will slowly begin to recover.
Prices are rising now because supplies are tighter, California has delayed implementing sow housing regulations and has clarified its proposals, Rabobank said.
With weekly slaughter down one per cent from a year ago and carcass weights down by 1.6 per cent, reduced production since late May has helped stabilize prices, it said.
Producers might expect to see a rebound in prices and a gradual decline in feed costs in the near-term, according to Rabobank’s outlook.
Rabobank expects at least a seven per cent decline in the U.S. sow herd over the next 12 to 18 months will be needed to restore herd profitability.
Additionally, large cold storage pork inventories, up six per cent from a year ago, are expected to decline throughout the remainder of the summer, and pork prices should continue to see improvement in the second half of the year, provided the expectations of lower production and improved consumption and exports are realized.
Overall, April pork and pork variety meat exports were up 10 per cent in volume and up by seven per cent in value from last year,
China - Hong Kong increased volumes by 26 per cent, South Korea increased by 43 per cent and Mexico grew five per cent.
Japan’s imports declined by two per cent and Colombia’s by 41 per cent.
