Scientists are questioning the federal government’s decision to allow fishing for Northern cod to resume because the fish population is classified as healthy.
The scientists say the population has not increased, but what has changed is the government’s method of counting and classifying what qualifies as “healthy”.
Fisheries and Oceans Canada completed its latest assessment for the northern cod stock, estimating the population to be in the “healthy zone” with a 70 per cent probability under newly defined benchmarks.
The classification has changed more than the underlying reality in the water, the critics said.
Under the new assessment the “healthy zone” is defined as 80 per cent of biomass at maximum sustainable yield, a benchmark that falls short of stronger conservation standards and relies heavily on modelled outputs with significant uncertainties, the critics said.
They said scientists and conservationists warn that the designation is overly optimistic and should not be interpreted as a full recovery or used to justify increased fishing pressure.
Rebecca Schijns, a fishery scientist for Oceana Canada, said while there are some positive signals of recovery, they must be weighed against persistent red flags and the broader context of northern cod rebuilding.
Just a few years ago, this same amount of fish was considered critically depleted, and the stock remains well below historically healthy and productive levels, she said.
“We’ve seen this before for cod — optimism racing ahead of evidence, quotas rising too fast, and a stock pushed back toward depletion,” Schijns said.
“Scientific uncertainty remains high. The assessment model is comprehensive but unstable, total catches are not fully accounted for, and critical ecosystem signals persist. Declaring success too early risks creating a false sense of recovery.
“Cod recovery is inseparable from ecosystem conditions, particularly the availability of capelin, which is alarmingly low at roughly 20 per cent of pre-collapse biomass levels.
