The United States Department of Agriculture is blaming highly-pathogenic avian influenza for a 40 per cent price increase in turkey meat.
Its Economic Research Service estimates that 3.8 turkeys died or were euthanized between November 2024 and February 2025. The figures did not include the nearly 400,000 turkeys affected by HPAI infections this September.
The government report said wholesale frozen turkeys will cost about $1.31 per pound this year, up from 94 cents per pound a year ago.
The wholesale price increases so far have yet to affect frozen turkey supplies at retail, with turkey processors predicting that there should not be a shortage of birds for holiday dinners this year despite the wholesale price rise, it said.
However, smaller meat markets are reporting steep hikes in wholesale turkey prices they pay, although some larger retailers expect shoppers to continue the nearly relatively standard practice of shoppers looking for alternative food options in other grocery store aisles before Thanksgiving Day.
Sylvain Charlebois of Dalhousie University wrote in a column that Canadian chicken prices are likely to increase next year because the Chicken Farmers of Canada supply management agency failed to respond fast enough to increase production to meet increasing demand, because import quotas were filled well before the end of the year and storage reserves have diminished.
He also blamed the federal government for failing to allow processors to import more chicken. It allowed only 10 per cent of the volume they requested.
In its most recent report to the federal government, the national agency said production fell short of is target this fall and “ongoing avian
influenza-related chick shortages and quality issues” may result in more shortfalls in production.
It said that for the first time in years, tariff-rate import quotas have been filled and supplementary import permits have been granted.
It expressed no conerns about retail shortages leading to big price increases next year.