Tree fruit growers share subsidy

 

Reporters usually get a news release when there is a new subsidy program available for farmers.

Now we get them when the money is spent. Must be an election coming, and civil servants are being used to do work that probably should be done by political party staff.

            ++++++++

One hundred and twenty-eight farmers who grow apples, tender fruit and table grapes are sharing $4.4 million from the federal and Ontario governments.

The funding is to plant varieties more in tune with consumer preferences, such as Gala and Honey Crisp apples and  Coral Star and Summer Serenade peaches.

“In its first year the Growing Future Opportunities Initiative is already helping Ontario fruit producers to be more competitive, so they can provide and market more popular products for consumers to enjoy,” said Ontario Agriculture Minisger Rob Flack.

Chapman’s wins international ice cream competition

Chapman’s Salty Caramel Crunch ice cream came first at the International Ice Cream Consortium (IICC) conference at Florence, Italy.

It beat competitors from 13 countries who submitted their entries for caramel ice creams.

“I am extremely proud that our peers from around the world voted for our ice cream to be the best of the best. It was not an easy competition with so many outstanding ice cream products participating,” said Ashley Chapman, the chief pperating officer for the family-owned business at Markham.

Salty Caramel Crunch is Chapman’s best-selling product in a luxury Super Premium Plus line. It is a blend of salty caramel ice cream with a ripple of salty caramel sauce, butter toffee pieces and caramel cookie bits. 

Chapman’s also won second in the Best Ice Cream category for the Cherry Cheesecake luxury ice cream and third in the Most Innovative Ice Cream category for their famed Cold Brew Coffee flavour.

At one time Chapman’s struggled to grow because the Ontario Milk Marketing Board rationed milk supplies to processors.

California dairy cows dying of bird fl

 

Hundreds of dairy cows are dying of highly-pathogenic avian influenza, reversing early observations that is mild in cattle, although deadly to poultry flocks.

In the state’s Central Valley, extreme heat has exacerbated health issues in cows suffering from the virus, which causes fever, slowed milk production and other symptoms, said Anja Raudabaugh, chief executive officer of  CEO of Western United Dairies, which represents almost 90 per cent of the state’s dairy farms.

Farms that might normally lose one or two cows per month have had hundreds die, Raudabaugh said.

Farmers contract with rendering companies to pick up dead cows, buy they’re having trouble keeping up, so some are rotting in the sun, he said.

Temperatures in the southern Central Valley, home to many dairies, have exceeded 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) six times so far in October, according to the National Weather Service.

Baker Commodities, a California rendering company, has seen an increase in dead dairy cows due to the heat and bird flu, said spokesperson Jimmy Andreoli II.

Joey Airoso, a Tulare County dairy farmer, said he is surrounded by dairies that have been hit with bird flu infections.

“The way its been traveling around here, I feel like almost everybody will probably get it,” he said.

The dead cows are a threat to spread the flu, particularly via carrion-eating birds such as vultures.

Some temps get mental health assistance

 

Some temporary foreign workers will gain access to mental health support because the federal and Ontario governments are giving nearly $1.8 million to the Canadian Mental Health Association.

It will provide funding first to its chapter in Windsor-Essex and then expand to Brant-Haldimand-Norfolk.

The program will provide referrals to free local services,

including recreational activities, primary care, counselling, support groups, in-person workshops, etc.

The services will be provided in Spanish, Tagalog, French and English.

Wasted milk critiqued

“Systemic inefficiencies” in Canada’s supply management system have led to billions of litres of milk going to waste since 2012, according to a new study published in the journal Ecological Economics.

It put the total at between 6.8 billion and 10 billion litres, about seven per cent of total production.

The study was one by researchers based in Denmark, Michigan and Halifax’s Dalhousie University. 

They put the value at $14.9 billion and said the milk could have fed 4.2 million Canadians, or about 11 per cent of the population.

The surplus milk contributed to “significant” land and water resource waste, and about 8.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Dairy Farmers of Canada questioned the accuracy of the findings.

“The authors of the study acknowledge that much of their conclusions are drawn from ‘estimates’ rather than a robust data set,” said chief executive officer Jacques Lefebvre.

The study’s research team said the supply management managers should charge penalties for over production and increase transparency about milk production, including reports on surplus production and waste.

They said dairy quotas should better fit with market demand and consumer preferences.

Lefebvre said “milk disposal is not a unique issue to Canda, Milk is disposed only as a last resort after exploring all other alternatives. This is done in accordance with regulations and the costs are borne by the dairy farmers,” he wrote in an e-mail to CTV news.

American shoppers shift to cheaper chicken

Pricing is resulting in more chicken sales, reports CoBank in its review of the U.S. meat industry which it said remains strong.

Chicken consumption is on pace to rise 1.5 pounds this year.

In pork, hog production margins are improving on lower feed costs, with CoBank citing Iowa State University’s projection that farrow-to-finish operators posted their fifth consecutive month of positive margins in August.

However, CoBank said expansion in production is unlikely as all costs but feed are still high. As a result, pork prices should hold steady through the rest of the year, it said.

Global pork demand is so strong that the U.S. will likely overtake Europe as the leader in pork exports this year, CoBank predicted.

Rising beef prices didn’t slow demand in the grilling season and retail prices continued to climb through August, exceeding $8.60 ($11.83 Cdn) per pound.

There were ample retail hamburger promotions, the report said.

The composition of beef coming to market in 2024 has been derived more from fed cattle, with more steers entering the feedlot than last year. 

Falling feed prices, a changing mix of cattle and tighter availability is contributing to higher cattle weights, CoBank said.

 

Matt McIntosh wins top international award

 

Matt McIntosh, a farmer and writer from Southwestern Ontario has won Agricultural Journalist of the Year from the International 

Federation of Agricultural Journalists.

His winning article about how greenhouses pollute Lake Erie water was published in the Narwhal magazine.

McIntosh writes for a number of different agriculture publications and has a website as the Rural Philosopher.

Huffman elected treasurer of NAMI

Randy Huffman of Maple Leaf Foods has been elected treasurer of the North American Meat Institute.

He is chief Food Safety and Sustainability Officer for Maple Leaf Foods.

The institute’s members are all of the major meat packers in Canada and the United States.

James Snee of Hormel Foods was elected president and Peter Bozzo of Michael’s Finer Meats and Seafood vice-chairman.

Alberta plant cuts milk transport costs

 

Dairy Innovation West plans to open a $75-million plant by spring that will remove water from milk and thereby cut milk transportation costs in half.

The plant will use reverse osmosis and ultra-high filtration to process milk. The water-reduced milk will then be sent to industrial milk processing plants to make cheese, butter and yogourt.

The province’s milk-hauling fleet will be cut in half and farmers will save about $15 per year on transportation costs.

Danish Crown cutting staff

Danish Crown, one of the major competitors for Canadian pork packers in export markets, is cutting costs by laying off about 500 staff.

"Danish Crown is in the midst of a crisis and we are facing radical changes. Our costs are simply too high in relation to our earnings," said chief executive officer Niels Duedahl.

"We are now adapting our organization and focusing 100 per cent on our core business to ensure a better payment to the farmers who own Danish Crown," he said.

In April it announced it will close one of its major slaughterhouses and lay off nearly 1,200 employees by mid-September.

Danish crown said at the time that the number of pigs sent for slaughter has dropped significantly since 2021, making it necessary to streamline production in order to pay Danish farmers a competitive price for their pigs.

Cash croppers in a squeeze

 

Cash cropper margins could be the worst in 20 years, according to a writer for the AgWeb news site.

“The margins that farmers are facing on average are really a tough place to be in for 2022 to 2024,” said Krista Swanson, lead economist for the National Corn Growers Association. 

“According to  USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), the cost to produce corn dropped five per cent, but the price was down by 37 per cent.

“And when we look at those average numbers from the USD, looking at cost of production for corn prices and yield, that comes out to average losses of $125 per acre.”

USDA’s revised Net Farm Income projections, released in early September, show net cash farm income for the 2024 calendar year will fall by $12 billion, which is down about seven per cent from 2023, and net farm income will fall by $6.5 billion or 4.4 per cent. 

This is compared to projections released in February which suggested net farm income would fall by 26 per cent.

Beef prices and margins are much higher, but not enough to offset the grim news for cash cropping.

Tractor and combine sales tumble

Tractor sales in Canada were down by 24 per cent in September from a year ago and combine sales by 52 per cent.

In the United States, tractor sales were down by 19 per cent and combine sales by 51 per cent, according to the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.

AGCO announced layoffs at its facility at Hesston, Kansas.

Beef and egg prices still rising

 Food prices continued to rise faster than the overall Consumer Price Index in September, led by beef, up by 9.2 per cent, eggs up by five per cent and fats and oils up by 7.8 per cent.

The food price index rose by 2.2 per cent while the Consumer Price Index came in at 1.6 per cent, the lowest increase since 2021.

The food price index has risen by 21.7 per cent in three years.

Gasoline prices were down by 10.7 per cent from a year ago.

                          

 Question: How does supply management for eggs lead to price increases greater than CPI?

Avian flu returns to Utah

 

Highly-pathogenic avian influenza returned to Utah, resulting in the culling of 1.8 million chickens on one farm in Cache County.

For comparison, there are about 24.6 million laying hens in Ontario.

There was another recent outbreak that affected 62,800 birds in California, the first outbreak in that state since January.

Avian influenza has also infected the sixth person stricken in the United States; he was working with dairy cattle.

Canada Packers brand name returns

 

Maple Leaf Foods is bringing back the Canada Packers brand for its premium meats that will be processed from animals and poultry that meet standards for environmental protection, animal welfare and food safety.

Canada Packers merged with Maple Leaf Mills to become Maple Leaf Foods in 1991.

Maple Leaf later bought J.M. Schneiders from Smithfield Foods in 2003.

“We’re not just celebrating our heritage, we’re leading the way for the future of pork and poultry production, both at home and globally,” Swinex quotes Michael McCain which it identified as chief executive officer.

Except he’s no longer ceo. It’s Curtis Frank.

And Dennis Organ will be ceo of Canada Packers.

Avian flu spreading in California dairy herds

 

Highly-pathogenic avian influenza has spread to 93 dairy herds in California, but dairy industry officials are uncertain what it means for milk supplies.

Usually the disease in cattle is mild, but is deadly to poultry. It is turning out to be more serious among cattle than previously thought.

California has about 1,100 dairy herds and 1.7 million cows which account for about 20 per cent of the U.S. milk supply.

State and federal health authorities insist that H5N1 poses little threat to humans and that it is safe to drink milk that has been pasteurized, because the process kills the virus.

However, dairy farmers and veterinarians are reporting far greater rates of mortality among infected herds than anticipated and steep drops in the rate of milk production among recovered cows. 

At the same time, some epidemiologists fear that as the virus spreads among California farms, it greatly increases the odds that it can mix with a human virus and create a health threat for people.

“I was shocked the first time I encountered it in one of my herds,” said Maxwell Beal, a Central Valley-based veterinarian who has been treating infected herds in California since late August. 

“It was just like, wow. Production-wise, this is a lot more serious than than we had hoped. And health-wise, it’s a lot more serious than we had been led to believe.”

Beef jelly tongue recall expands

 

The recall of beef jelly tongue made by Wagener's has expanded to 29 brands.

Provincial authorities said at least four consumers have been infected with Listeria monocytogenes food-poisoning bacteria in the products.

Much of the recalled meat was distributed to retailers in Kitchener and London.

The Toronto-based company has been in business for 58 years.

Turkey buyers seek class-action status

Turkey buyers continue to seek certification for a class-action lawsuit they filed in 2019.

They are now pointing to a Department of Justice opinion that simply sharing information is a breach of the law governing competition in the United States.

Pork producers have included AgriStats in their class-action lawsuits; the company gathered data from packing companies, then prepared an industry report and sold it back to the packers.

Among the information was prices and production volumes and planned production volumes.

Many of the pork packers and chicken processors have reached settlements that mean there are no trials where information by the accusers and accused would be revealed.

Feds add funding for animal health

 

The federal agriculture department has announced another $12.3 million for national health and disease preparedness programs.

Of that, up to $3.53 million will go for animal health surveillance, five million to improve emergency management practices and $4.81 million to update, amend, and review several codes of practice.

            

Farmers are improving land

 

The Ontario government said that farmers have taken $12.2 million for 123 projects to improve land under the Resilient Agricultural Landscape Program.

Farmers planted grassland and trees, reduced tillage and created water retention ponds.

 These improvements help farmers increase their resilience against extreme weather events and enhance the health of their soil and water, while boosting biodiversity on their properties,” said a news release from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Agri-business.

The program, administered by the Ontario Soil and Crop Improvement Association, is open to more applications.

Packers oppose mandatory beef auctions

 

The North American Meat Institute is campaigning against federal government proposals to force market-ready beef cattle to be sold in open bidding.

It would end contracting between producers and packers.

Institute president Julie Anna Potts said this is not about transparency, as the government says, but “is about the government dictating how cattle may be bought and sold.”

She said it’s farmers who want contracting so that prices reflect their efforts to improve genetics and other traits.

She said open markets still establish industry pricing which is at record high levels.

Potts said “cattle production operations are not all the same and the cattle they produce are not one-size-fits all.  Moving back in time to a commodity cattle market will reduce competition, innovation, and quality, ultimately hurting the entire industry.  Livestock producers ought to be rewarded for their innovation in the marketplace.”

On the other hand, the farmers pressing for the new regulations point to class-action lawsuits against the largest beef packers, claiming they collude to rig the markets for cattle and beef.

                  

Ontario had 13 rabid bats

 

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency reports that Ontario had 13 rabid bats during September, bringing the total for the year to 63.

One child died and another person was bitten by a rabid bat in the Brantford area.

Nationally there have been103 cases of rabid bats and animals so far this year.

Other than two artic foxes and for skunks, they were all bats.

Governments offer $4 million for workers

The federal and Ontario agriculture departments are offering $4 million to help attract and retain agriculture-industry workers.

The initiative will help fund job training and new recruitment marketing campaigns, introduce new worker supports such as ridesharing programs and language training and support the planning of on-site amenities and recreational facilities, a news release said.

“We have heard loud and clear from Ontario’s agribusiness champion processors that continued access to skilled labour is crucial to their long-term growth,” said Ontario Agriculture Minister Rob Flack.

Successful producers and processors can receive up to 50 per cent in cost-share support per project, up to a maximum of $40,000. 

Eligible industry organizations and collaborations between or among businesses can receive up to 50 per cent of their eligible costs, up to a  maximum of $100,000 per project. 

The Initiative will start accepting applications on October 22.

UG touts internship program

The University of Guelph is trying to draw attention to an internship program it offers students studying for a master’s degree in agricultural economics, animal science and plant science.

One of the reasons is the difficulty companies are experiencing in recruiting youth to take up jobs while veteran employees are retiring.

Those eligible for internships are students who have completed a four-year undergraduate degree and at least two semesters or master’s degree studies.

Emmanuele Arnaud, assistant dean of graduate studies at Ontario Agricultural College, said companies “have had a hard time finding students and people to fill their positions, especially in Ontario. 

“There are a lot of people retiring and not enough highly qualified personnel to fill those roles.”

Ontario farmland prices stall

Farmland prices have stalled in significant parts of Ontario, such as Huron, Perth, Bruce and Grey, reports Farm Credit Canada.

But other parts of the province posted gains, pushing up the provincial average by 2.1 per cent.

That’s less than half the Canada-wide prices which went up by 5.5 per cent.

The FCC figures are for the first half of this year.

The upward trend in farmland prices is because of limited land available to buy and good farm cash receipts, FCC said.

On the other hand, commodity prices have declined and interest rates are high.

FCC said declining interest rates may lead to higher farmland prices.

McDonald’s sues nine beef packers

McDonald’s Corp. has filed a lawsuit in New York accusing nine beef packers of conspiring to elevate beef prices for almost 10 years.

The suit contends that the companies had “multiple opportunities to collude” on beef prices by trading competitively sensitive information at trade shows and other industry-related events.

Among the nine are Tyson Foods Inc., JBS SA, Cargill Inc., and National Beef.

The lawsuit said the nine accused account for more than 80 per cent of the U.S. beef supply.

JBS and Cargill have beef-packing plants in Alberta and Ontario and Canadian prices closely track prices in the United States.

So far there have been no meat price-fixing lawsuits in Canada despite years of lawsuits in the United States, and there is no word from the Bureau of Competition Policy in Ottawa that it has launched any investigations similar to those ongoing by the U.S. government.

Beef jelly tongue recalled

Recall

By Jim Romahn

Oct. 7/24

 

 

Wagener’s beef Jelly Tongue is under recall because of contamination with Listeria monocytogenes food-poisoning bacteria.

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency identified the bacteria after it launched an investigation into food-poisoning outbreaks.

                           -30-

Disastrous milk protection bill

 

The Bloc Quebecois is making passage of a bill banning any trade concessions for supply-managed commodities a condition for its support of the minority Liberal government.

It’s a terrible idea, including for supply management.

The truth is that whoever wins the U.S. presidential election, the winner will impose more tariffs.

That will have enormous impact on the Canadian economy because the U.S. is our biggest customer.

Supply management is an important bargaining chip, but we lose it if the bill now in the Senate is approved.

World demand for dairy products is increasing and Canada is one of the few countries which has the resources to capitalize on that demand.

But we can’t export because the World Trade Organization has ruled that supply management is a subsidy and it has banned the export of subsidized products.

But there is nothing to prevent Canada from bargaining that involves ending supply management, nor from the federal and provincial governments from subsidizing milk producers via some back door, such as protecting the environment..

Chicken, eggs and turkey should be able to stand agains an unprotected border with the U.S. because we use the same genetics, feed and other inputs and we have more land and water.

We are certainly less vulnerable to hurricanes, such as Helene and Matthew that destroyed a significant portion of the U.S. chicken and egg farms and processing faciiities.

Fortune magazine has a feature article this month saying increasing tariffs will almost certainly happen with Donald Trump hitting harder than Kamala Harris.

It also calculates that Trump’s tariff proposals will increase inflation, reduce gross domestic product and cost the average American household $1,750 a year.

Those unintended consequences don’t register with voters. Nor does the fact that increasing tariffs is exactly the same as increasing taxes, which is political suicide.

What are the chances of the Bloc Quebecois bill passing? Pretty high.

Bang! Shot in our foot!

Georgia farms devastated by hurricane

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp said Hurricane Helene has wiped out this year’s harvest and delivered a hard blow to the state’s $84-billion agriculture economy.

He was speaking at a news conference with former U.S. President Donald Trump, overed by CNN.

Separate news reports indicate half of the pecan trees have been  destroyed and cotton farmers, already in trouble after droughts, have lost crops just before harvest.

Hundreds of poultry barns were damaged.

Georgia is perennially the number one state in the nation in the production of peanuts, broilers, pecans, blueberries and spring onions.

 

It is one of the top states for producing cotton, watermelon, peaches, eggs, cucumbers, sweet corn, bell peppers, tomatoes, cantaloupes, rye and cabbage. 

 

In South Carolina, 95 per cent of the corn crop was in the bin and 25 per cent of soybeans were mature and being harvested.

There is scant information about the impact on North Carolina’s $100-billion agriculture industry, other than a report that a third of the greenhouses were damaged.

Previous hurricanes have flooded hog operations, drowning thousands of pigs and spilling manure from lagoons over thousands of square kilometres of flatlands along the eastern half of the state.

North Caroline’s mountain communities were the hardest hit by Hurricane Helene, killing most of the 200 people so far counted as dead.

Florida’s peanut crop was the hardest hit; the storm swept up Highway I-75 where the peanuts were in the midst of harvest.

Some farms were also hit hard by a hurricane 10 years ago.

AgWeb offers combine window cleaning tips

 

AgWeb, an on-line and farmer magazine business, has gathered tips from farmers on keeping combine windows clean.

One farmer said long-handled rubber squeegee might reduce problems with fine dust clinging to window glass. 

Using spray-on window cleaner and then rubbing with paper towels seems to create a static charge that actually attracts dust. 

My experience is that using a professional-quality rubber squeegee minimizes potential for adding a static electric charge to the window.

Use a bucket of water with a little Dawn Dish Soap to soak the glass before squeegeeing. Plus, squeegeeing with a long-handled tool is faster than hand-wiping a big window.

Another recommended using ground chains to reduce the need for window washing. 

One theory is that all the rubber belts spinning in sheaves and pulleys generate a static electric charge within a combine’s metalwork. 

One fall I attached a short length of log chain to the frame of a combine and let it drag for several inches on the ground. I couldn’t tell if it was making any difference in the cleanliness of the windows until one afternoon when the windows suddenly clouded over with dust in less than an hour’s time. 

That evening, I noticed that the bolt holding my ground chain had come loose and the chain was missing. I put on a new chain, and the next day my windows stayed noticeably less dusty.

“I have dragged a chain [behind my equipment] for 20 years,” says Heath Petersen. “Not saying it’s everyone’s answer, but I only clean my windows if it rains.”

When it comes to ground chains, remember the following: 

 

• The chain must be bolted to bare metal on the frame and located so it drags between the rows for better contact with bare soil. 
• Because of the amount of crop residue, ground chains work better in soybeans than in corn. 
• A heavy chunk of log chain works best, with the extra weight keeping it in contact with the ground.

Terry Christensen says the soft-bristled brush is a “great” option when you need something that’s quick and easy in the busy season. He says you can find these brushes at most auto part stores.

According to Nathan Reed, the brush can be used on the hard-to-reach back window, facing the hopper.

“On my Case combines, the window tilts toward the inside,” Reed said. “When I have to stop on the end to dump, I pop it open and run the duster over it.” 

Rain-X, used to repel rain, sleet and snow, works for Jerry McCulley.

Brett Schultz uses anything laying around, such as his wife’s best dress -not! – and Leonard Reuby uses old white t-shirts.

 

         

Bruce County lends $100,000 to IPM

 

Bruce County Council has approved lending $100,000 to the organizers of the International Plowing Match to be held near Walkerton in 2026.

It will be at the same location as the 1976 IPM, at the corner of Durham Road and Bruce Road 3, west of Walkerton and near Tiverton.

The Bruce County Plowmens Association asked for financial support in February and this week council approved an interest-free $100,000 loan.

Staff recommended $25,000 be given now and the balance when needed.

The loan is to be repaid in full by December 31, 2026.

Child dies of rabies

 

A child bitten by a rabid bat has died.

Halidmand-Norfolk public health unit revealed the death during a recent board meeting.

The bat entered a room where child was sleeping and did not know that the bat scratched or bit him or her.

That was in August in Gowganda in the Temiskaming Region.

Another rabid bat bit a person in Brantford on Sept. 6.

California dairy worker has flu

 

A worker on a dairy farm in California has contracted avian influenza from the cattle, the second case in the state and the 16^th in the United States.

Six of the 16 were working with infected dairy cattle and the others with infected poultry.

None of the people fell seriously ill, nor have any cattle died of the disease, but it’s deadly in poultry.

There have been no cases of highly-pathogenic avian influenza in cattle or people in Canada.

NFU alarmed by jet fuel proposals

Darrel Qualman, policy advisor for the National Farmers Union, laid out challenges with farm-based jet fuel when he spoke at a conference at Houston, Texas.

The three-day conference was on Sustainable Aviation Futures North America.

Here’s what Qualman said:

Airline and energy companies are on the eve of a megaproject: switching the fuel supplies of the global jet fleet to agricultural feedstocks.

The massive scale of the plan will create many negative effects.

Removing billions of tonnes of biomass from the world’s farmlands will slow soil carbon sequestration and create soil health risks.

Growing and removing that biomass also creates the need for increased quantities of nitrogen fertilizer, which will increase on-farm greenhouse gas emissions. 

Energy crops will require many millions of acres to produce and will compete with food crops and drive up grocery store prices. 

Governments have committed to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This creates a problem for airlines and their rising emissions. 

The industry’s plan is to transition off fossil fuels and onto Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs). 

For the most part, this means fuelling jets from farmland. 

Initially, limited SAF feedstocks will come from crops: corn, soybeans, and canola. 

Phase two, much more ambitious, is to use other agricultural feedstocks—mostly crop residues such as straw and corn stover—and also tens-of-millions of acres of purpose-grown energy crops: fast growing grasses and farmed trees.  

A third phase is proposed: to turn air (a source of carbon) and water (a source of hydrogen) into liquid hydrocarbon fuels using renewable electricity, but such plans are costly and probably not scalable, requiring, by many estimates, quantities of electricity roughly equal to total current global production.

The scale of the SAF megaproject is staggering. Airlines plan to double air travel by 2050. To fuel all those flights, they will need more than 130 billion gallons of fuel per year—about half-a-trillion litres. 

Producing even half of that volume from farm-sourced feedstocks will require one to two billion tonnes of biomass per year. 

And the investment required to build thousands of production facilities is, according to airline industry associations, $4 to $8 trillion between now and 2050.

The SAF project is just one of many such plans to take more and more from farmland, including: feeding billions more people as populations grow, producing billions of tonnes of biomass per year for negative-emission electricity (so-called bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, BECCS), producing biomaterials to replace plastics, producing biofibres to replace petroleum-derived fibres and fabrics, etc. 

And we’re going to try to do all that from a global farmland base that will be increasingly battered by climate impacts.

We’re already taking too much from the planet’s farmland base, and multiple new demands are planned. 

There simply isn’t enough farmland, biomass, soil, water, or productive capacity to supply SAF feedstocks in the quantities proposed. 

To try to do so risks triple failure: failing to actually decarbonize aviation, failing to ensure food security, and failing to safeguard our farmland and our besieged biosphere.