Canada’s
agriculture industry faces tough sledding on trade, according to a new report
from Douglas Hedley, once Canada’s chief agriculture negotiator, and Al
Mussell, a senior agricultural economist.
Both
now head Agri-Food Economic Systems Associate which has issued its report on
events since U.S. President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the
Trans-Pacific Partnership and served notice that he wants to renegotiate the
North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico.
Hedley
says “the sheer number of prospective trade complaints and defensive actions
coming from the U.S. could swamp our capacity to effectively analyze and mount a
successful defense; this may be a strategy of the new U.S. administration”.
Mussell
says, “a retrenchment of the U,S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, potential
renegotiation of NAFTA, a prospective U.S. border tax, and U.S. trade
complaints raised against Canada will drive Canada to consider alternative
markets.
“This
puts more pressure on CETA (the free trade deal with Europe) and prospective
new trade agreements with Japan, China, and perhaps others to provide markets
for our agri-food products.
“It
will also require alignment between domestic agricultural policy and this new
trade environment”.
Hedley
says “at the same time, a WTO (World Trade Organization) ministerial meeting is
scheduled for later this year, in which domestic support for agriculture is likely
to be a key element.
“Canada
will be pressed to advance its agenda for reduced agricultural support globally
and to deal with its own sensitivities.”
Supply
management accounts for the lion’s share of “agricultural support” so is at
risk in these negotiations.
“This
will further draw upon our trade policy capacity,” says Hedley.
