African Swine Fever is the main reason, but COVID-19’s impact on packing-plant staff is another.
Rabobank expects China to import record amounts of pork and other meats this year.
China’s pork production is expected to decline by another 15 to 20 per cent this year. It has lost about half of its pigs to the disease.
Import demand will rise in Vietnam and the Philippines because their pork production will decline by about 10 per cent.
The outlook is hard to predict because African Swine Fever could get into commercial hog farms in Europe; it’s circulating in wild boar populations in many European countries.
Rabobank also expects the COVID-19 pandemic to impact pork consumption, particularly because of the loss of restaurant and hotel business.
Reduced consumption will not make up for reduced production, resulting in relatively tight pork markets, Rabobank said.
