Heimbecker was the Elmira-born half of Parrish and Heimbecker and he had just returned from a trip through Ukraine where one of the things he saw was huge flocks of crows feeding on wheat that was being blown off of untarpted trucks hauling from fields to elevators.
Today I read this report which I have edited to make it shorter:
Ukraine will be a fierce competitor in grain markets this year and for years to come, according to a senior agriculture official from that country.
Nikolay Gorbachov, president of the Ukrainian Grain Association, is forecasting a bumper crop in 2021-22.
The association’s official estimate calls for 97.3 million tonnes of grains, oilseeds and pulses.
But after a recent road trip from Odessa to Kiev, he believes the harvest will be more than 100 million tonnes, topping the previous record of 98.3 million tonnes set in 2019-20.
“What I can tell you about Ukraine is the conditions are just perfect,” Gorbachov told delegates attending the International Grains Council’s Grains Conference 2021, adding that abundant rain reminds him of Scotland.
“All the fields are green,” he said.
Gorbachov believes farmers will produce more than 30 million tonnes of wheat. The current record is 28 million tonnes.
“A group of traders think the wheat crop could be up to 35 million tonnes,” said Gorbachov. “In that case we can export 25 to 27 million tonnes.”
For now, the association is sticking with its forecast of 21 million tonnes of wheat exports because there are still a few weeks before harvest and a lot can happen between now and then.
The Ukrainian Grains Association estimates production will reach 113 million tonnes by 2026.
That forecast is based primarily on improved yields due to increased irrigation. Ukraine has 25 percent of the world’s most fertile black soil and there are many lakes and rivers.
A crop of 113 million tonnes would result in 79 million tonnes of exports.
Gorbachov said there used to be legitimate concerns about Ukraine’s ability to move that much grain to overseas markets but the logistical issues have been addressed.
China accounted for 25 percent of Ukraine’s grain exports last year. The other key markets are the European Union, the Middle East and North Africa.
