Where's the beef?

Global beef production is expected to decline by two per cent this year, according to Rabobank’s quarterly report on beef.

Rabobank expects production to fall in the United States, Brazil, China and Europe, with the global contraction expected to continue over the next 12 months. The tighter production outlook comes as trade flows shift in response to declining supplies, tariffs and import restrictions.

In the U.S., declining domestic production and historically tight cattle supplies have driven record beef imports. It’s beef imports increased by 11 per cent from a year earlier to a record 3.3 billion pounds during the first six months of 2026. 

Australia, Mexico and Argentina accounted for much of the growth, increasing shipments by 99 million, 91 million and 71 million pounds, respectively.

Cattle and beef prices reached highs across nearly every major U.S. market category during the second quarter before retreating sharply entering the third quarter. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s all-fresh retail beef price peaked at $10 per pound in April, while 500-pound and 800-pound steer prices reached record monthly averages of $5.17 and $3.68 per pound, respectively. Fed steers averaged $2.59 per pound in May.

Since those highs, cattle prices have declined by between8 eight and 16 per cent, reducing farm and ranch revenues by an estimated $200 to $500 per head depending on the market segment, according to Rabobank. 

Ample frozen beef inventories also allowed wholesale buyers to resist additional price increases during the summer grilling season.

International trade shifts could put additional beef into the U.S. market during the second half of the year. 

Australia and Brazil could become increasingly dependent on U.S. buyers as both countries reach safeguard quotas for exports to China.

The Trump administration has also said it is increasing import quotas by 300,000 pounds.