It’s likely to make things warmer across Western Canada this
summer, stretching as far as Ontario, but not into Quebec and the Maritimes.
The last severe El Niño, in 1997-1998,
is estimated to have caused losses of between $10 billion and $25 billion in
the U.S. In 1982-1983, more than $8 billion in damage worldwide was attributed
to the cycle.
Three major meteorological agencies --
the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Japan's
Meteorological Agency and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology -- have
determined that water in the Pacific Ocean is now warm enough to say that El
Niño is back.
"At this time, there is also
considerable uncertainty as to how strong this event may become," the
North American Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency says.
According to the agency, there is a more
than 60 per cent chance that the pattern will hold through autumn.
Warnings from other forecasters have
been more forceful.
"This is a proper El Niño effect,
it's not a weak one," David Jones, manager of climate monitoring and
prediction at Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, told reporters this week.
"You know, there's always a little
bit of doubt when it comes to intensity forecasts, but across the models as a
whole we'd suggest that this will be quite a substantial El Niño event,"
he said.
Drought is the risk for Australia.
