Al Mussell paints a gloomy picture in his most recent global analysis of agriculture and politics.
He said the oil price spike related to the United States and Israeli attacks on Iran illustrate how “a calorie is a calorie” whether derived from oil or crops.
As oil supplies are disrupted and prices rise, governments turn to corn and oilseeds to supplement gasoline and diesel fuels.
That increases food prices and has governments borrowing more money to pay for the crop-based gasoline and diesel supplements.
Governments are becoming so indebted that paying interest on their debts leaves them with little room to offset the decline in calories – i.e. oil-based costs or food prices.
The two calorie sources are closely linked, Mussell said. For example, nitrogen derived from oil and natural gas is needed to grow the corn needed for ethanol, livestock and poultry rations and food products.
Mussell is senior research fellow for the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute.
It’s a gloomy outlook.
