Chinese pork import demand is poised to rise from 2.1 million tonnes last year to 3.3 million tonnes this year and 4.2 million tonnes next year, according to INTL FCStone, a brokerage and consultantcy.
It released its estimates during a commodities outlook conference in Sao Paulo, Brazil, this week.
It expects China’s pork production to decline from 54 to 38 million tonnes this year because of African Swine Fever, and decline again to 34 million tonnes next year.
Renato Rasmussen, FCStone’s market intelligence director in Brazil, said that China could take up to seven years to return to production levels near 50 million tonnes per year.
He said Brazil could become the major supplier of not only pork, but also beef and poultry.
The U.S. faces stiff tariffs and Canada is suspended because of export certificate fraud.
With China taking so much, there will likely be opportunities in other world markets for Canadian pork.