Rabobank predicts beef supplies will decline this year, particularly after mid-summer, and send high prices even higher.
It predicts per capita beef supplies this year will be 58.8 pounds, a dip from an estimated 59.6 pounds in 2024, and while beef supplies may remain stable in early 2025, due to heavier carcass weights, stronger beef imports, and feedyard inventories near year-ago levels, the pending cattle deficit will cause availability to tighten by mid-year,” the report said.
The U.S. has seen 3.8 million beef cows liquidated since a peak in 2019. That reduction, which amounts to about 12 per cent of beef cows, has left the U.S. herd at a historic, nearly 75-year low.
“Additionally, improved pasture and hay availability — along with stronger cattle and milk margins — will encourage producers to rebuild herds in both the beef and dairy sectors,” Rabobank said.
“This will further reduce the number of cattle available for slaughter, marking a critical change in market fundamentals for cattle producers and beef consumers.”
It expects cattle inventories will continue to decline through 2027 as herd rebuilding for beef and dairy cows alike, further paring the number of head available for slaughter.
It said annual U.S. beef supplies could bottom out in two years at about 54 pounds per capita.
Barring 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian beef and cattle that have been threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump, Canadian beef prices will closely track what happens in the U.S.
