Meat and vegetable prices will rise next year and so will restaurant meals, predicts a team from Dalhousie University in Halifax and the University of Guelph.
In their annual Food Price Report, they say prices will rise by three to five per cent next year.
This year’s price increases have been at the low end of the outlook they provided a year ago when they said prices would rise by 2.5 to 4.5 per cent. So far they are up by 2.9 per cent.
They predict meat prices will rise by four to six per cent to record highs.
Beef is the priciest. They cite $32 per kilogram in September for beef striploin cuts compared with $20 last December.
There are fewer beef cattle than any time since 1987 and the current high prices will be prompting ranchers to keep more females for breeding rather than shipping them to market which will exacerbate the beef shortage.
But chicken and turkey production are under marketing board control and the federal and provincial governments mandate them to keep the Canadian market well supplied.
Pork has been a bargain for much of this year and the outlook is for those prices to remain relatively stable.
If president-elect Donald Trump hits Canadian meat exports with a 25 per cent tariff, it could create chaos in the Canadian beef and pork markets. The Food Price Report is silent on that issue.
Among factors pushing prices higher is the decline in the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. which supplies most of Canada’s food imports, including fresh fruits and vegetables during winter months.
Climate change is pushing up cocoa prices in West Africa which is suffering from drought, orange prices due to flooding in Brazil and wildfires in Canada that disrupt rail and truck traffic.
