University of Guelph professor Karl Meilke says he’s “confident
that after a respectable delay Canada will ratify the TPP (Trans Pacific
Partnership) trade deal.
“Still, (Prime Minister Justin) Trudeau will face some
opposition in his own party” and ”consumer protectionism among the elite,
economic nationalism and fear of enhanced globalization among the general
population will make passage challenging for a new Prime Minister,” Meilke
writes in a paper for an economic journal.
“The same will be true in other TPP nations, including the
United States.
“I hope I am wrong, but don’t be surprised if the ratification and implementation of the TPP is delayed for an extended period
of time in spite of its benefits for Canadians and Canadian agriculture,” he
writes.
He cites an economic paper that built a model to conclude
that Canada will both import and export more agricultural products and food.
Canada’s exports will increase by about $1 billion per year,
with meat accounting for about half of that and processed foods for about 25
per cent.
Canada's biggest agricultural gains will be in exports to Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam.
Canada’s meat production will increase by about half of one
per cent and milk production will decline by about 2.5 per cent by 2025.
But two of the key benefits are enforceable rules of trade, a
huge benefit to a relatively weaker country such as Canada compared with the
United States and Japan, and access to the other 11 countries’ markets at the
same tariff rates as our competitors in the TPP.
If, for example, Canada stays out and the U.S. gains the TPP’s
lower tariff rates to countries such as Japan, Canada might not be able to sell
anything there.
