So how many speeches have you heard already this year predicting a dire global shortage of food?
You know the type: populations are exploding, global warming is wreaking havoc on crop production, yada, yada, yada! Go buy farmland because they aren't making any more of it!
Check this out:
World production of major foods set records last year, according to this week’s outlook analysis from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Cereal stock levels have climbed to all-time highs.
A joint outlook prepared by the OECD and the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts weakening growth in global demand for agricultural commodities and food, while anticipating continuing productivity improvements in the sector.
As a result, prices of main agricultural commodities are expected to remain low for the next 10 years.
The report attributes the demand slowdown to a deceleration of demand growth in major emerging economies, stagnating per capita consumption of staple foods and a further gradual decline in global population growth rates.
The global agricultural and fish production is projected to grow by around 20 per cent over the coming decade, but with considerable variation across regions.
Strong growth is expected in developing regions with more rapid population growth, including Sub-Saharan Africa, South and East Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa. By contrast, production growth is expected to be much lower in developed countries, especially in Western Europe.
Declining demand growth for meat products will put a brake on the demand for cereals and protein meal used in animal feed.
With slower consumption and production growth, agricultural and fish trade are projected to grow at about half the rate of the previous decade.
Net exports are expected to increase from land-abundant countries, such as Canada and the Americas.
Countries with high population growth, in particular in the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and in Asia, will see rising net imports.
Demand for cereals and vegetable oil for the production of biofuels is expected to be largely unchanged over the forecast period, in contrast with the past decade, when biofuels expansion led to more than 120 million tonnes of additional cereals demand, predominantly corn.
With existing policies in developed countries unlikely to support biofuels expansion, most demand growth will come from developing countries that have introduced policies favouring biofuel use.
In particular, the use of sugarcane for biofuel production is expected to increase.
